Istanbul and Ankara Favor Opposition in Local Elections

April 1, 2024

Local Elections Signal Potential Shift in Turkish Politics

In a significant development for Turkish politics, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has taken the lead over his rival from President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party in the local elections held on Sunday. The initial count indicates a potential boost for the opposition, which could mark a resurgence as a formidable political entity.

Meanwhile, Ankara’s incumbent opposition mayor Mansur Yavas has declared an early victory against his AKP challenger, signaling another setback for Erdogan in Turkey’s second-largest city. These municipal elections are considered a litmus test for Erdogan’s popularity and the opposition’s resilience.

Despite Erdogan’s vigorous campaign efforts to regain control of Istanbul, Imamoglu, who is also seen as a potential presidential contender, has garnered 50% support based on 41.43% of the ballot boxes counted, compared to 41.26% for AKP’s Murat Kurum. Imamoglu expressed his gratitude for the trust placed in him by the citizens and found the current results highly encouraging.

The state-run Anadolu Agency reported that the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is leading in major cities such as Izmir, Bursa, Antalya, and Adana. After delivering a significant electoral defeat to Erdogan and his AKP in 2019, Imamoglu’s current performance could further cement his position as a national figure.

Analysts believe that a weak performance by AKP could indicate a loosening grip of Erdogan over Turkey and hint at possible changes in the country’s divided political scene. While some voters remain loyal to Erdogan, others like engineer Murat Ercan view Imamoglu as a more desirable leader due to his inclusive and positive approach.

The elections were not without violence, with incidents reported in eastern Turkey resulting in fatalities and injuries. These confrontations underscored the tensions that can accompany local elections in the country.

In Istanbul, a city pivotal to Turkey’s economy, the race was expected to be close. Economic challenges, including high inflation rates, have influenced voter sentiment, with Kurdish and Islamist voters playing a significant role in the election outcomes. The CHP’s nationwide lead of almost 39% of the votes marks a first in 35 years.

While Erdogan aimed to reclaim both Istanbul and Ankara, initial results do not seem to favor his prospects. The collapse of the opposition alliance he defeated last year has not significantly impacted Imamoglu’s appeal, which extends beyond his secularist CHP base.

The Kurdish vote was instrumental in Imamoglu’s previous victory, and despite the DEM party fielding its own candidate this time, many Kurds were anticipated to support Imamoglu once more. In the southeast, Kurdish voters expressed their desire for an end to the trustee system imposed by the state.

Erdogan also faces challenges from the rise of the Islamist New Welfare Party, which has gained traction due to its stance on international issues and domestic economic dissatisfaction with AKP’s policies.

The unfolding election results from Istanbul and other key cities could herald a new chapter in Turkey’s political narrative, with implications for both national leadership and future policy directions.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu led a challenger from President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party in local elections, potentially boosting the Turkish opposition
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