The SNP’s Dominance Has Lessened
In a move that has sent ripples through the political landscape of the United Kingdom, Scotland’s leader Humza Yousaf resigned on Monday. This event has put the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) more than a decade-long reign in jeopardy and has cast a shadow over its quest for independence from Britain. The SNP’s journey to this point began with its majority government establishment in 2011 and the subsequent 2014 independence referendum.
Although Scotland voted ‘No’ to independence, the SNP managed to rally ‘Yes’ supporters, securing a significant presence in the UK parliament in 2015. However,
The SNP’s stance against Brexit resonated with Scots, contrasting with the overall UK vote to leave the EU. Despite this, internal party dynamics have shifted, with some SNP lawmakers questioning the progressive agenda set forth by former leader Nicola Sturgeon and continued by Yousaf. The recent decision to end the coalition with the Greens over climate targets further exacerbated tensions within the party and among its supporters.
Current polling indicates a challenging road ahead for the SNP. A YouGov poll from April suggests Labour could surpass the SNP in a UK election for the first time since 2014. With a general election on the horizon and opinion polls on independence remaining static, the SNP faces an uphill battle to secure a mandate for another referendum.
As the SNP prepares for a leadership contest, Yousaf will remain as interim first minister. The party has 28 days to appoint a new leader before the possibility of a new Scottish parliamentary election is triggered. This leadership contest within the party is crucial not only for its future but also for the political direction of Scotland itself.
