A leading indicator, used to predict the future direction of economic movements in Cyprus, remained negative for the third month in a row in April, driven by a slowdown in tourist arrivals and an increase in crude oil prices.
The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI), compiled by the Economics Research Centre (CypERC) of the University of Cyprus, saw a year-over-year decrease of 0.6% in April, following the y-o-y drop of 0.6% and 0.4%, in March and February, respectively.
The rates were somewhat improved following the previous month’s CCLEI report, that showed a y-o-y decrease of 0.9% and 0.6% in March and February, respectively, and a 0.2 increase in January, compared to the same month last year.
International Developments and Uncertainties
The CypERC said that, “the prevailing international developments and uncertainties have inevitably affected the CCLEI and especially the international leading indices that compose the Index, with the year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI remaining negative in April.
“Specifically, the year-over-year growth rates of the Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) in Cyprus, and especially in the euro area, worsened in April.
“The negative annual growth rate of the CCLEI in April is also due to the negative growth rate of tourist arrivals in April, as well as the international price of Brent crude oil which saw a significant year-over-year increase in April.
Positive Domestic Trends
However, a positive trend in the remaining domestic leading components of the CCLEI, including property sales contracts, credit card transactions, retail sales volume, and the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production, helped contained the decline in the CCLEI in April.
Economic Research Centre (ERC) – Department of Economics, University of Cyprus (UCY)
