The political landscape of Cyprus is undergoing a significant transformation, with various factors poised to influence the outcome of the upcoming European Parliament elections. As the election day approaches, the dynamics of party rallying, Turkish Cypriot participation, voter turnout, and punishment voting are all in play.
Party Rallying
The ability of traditional parties to mobilize their voter base will be crucial in determining the election results. The competition between DISY and AKEL for the top spot is neck-and-neck, while the battle for third place between DIKO and ELAM remains uncertain. The fifth position, which could potentially lead to European Parliament representation, will depend on the rallying efforts of both major and smaller parliamentary parties. Independent candidates like Feidias Panayiotou and new parties such as Volt also have a stake in this, as their success hinges on the established parties’ ability to rally their supporters.
Turkish Cypriots
The special electoral register for Turkish Cypriots eligible to vote in the European elections has seen a significant increase, with approximately 104,000 individuals registered. In the previous elections, around 5,800 Turkish Cypriots voted, with a majority supporting AKEL. This year, an increased turnout is expected, but predicting the exact number of Turkish Cypriot voters remains challenging. The presence of three Turkish Cypriot candidates—Niyazi Kizilyurek for AKEL, Oz Karahan for the Green Party, and Hulusi Kilim for Volt—may encourage higher participation. An anticipated turnout of 10,000-15,000 Turkish Cypriot voters could significantly impact the election outcome.
Voter Turnout
The previous European elections saw a record abstention rate, with participation just below 45%. Out of 641,181 registered voters, only 288,483 cast their ballots. The inclusion of Turkish Cypriot voters in the overall voter list affects the abstention rate calculation, as their participation has historically been low. Conversely, a lower overall participation rate amplifies the impact of the Turkish Cypriot vote. The simultaneous conduct of European and Local Government elections might boost voter turnout due to a diverse array of candidates. However, concerns about the complexity of the voting process and multiple ballots could deter some voters.
Punishment Voting
Interactions between political parties and society, along with various polls, indicate a trend towards punishment voting. A segment of the electorate intends to punish traditional parties by voting for alternative candidates or new parties. This trend has led to increased support for far-right parties like ELAM and independent candidates such as Fidias Panayiotou. The newly established Volt party also appears to be gaining traction. Whether this trend will translate into actual votes on election day remains uncertain.
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