Brazil’s Coffee Production Continues to Flourish
In an unprecedented trend, Brazil is expected to post its third annual increase in coffee production, marking a sequence rarely observed in the nation’s storied 144-year history as the world’s leading coffee producer and exporter. This positive trajectory is not only anticipated to persist but also to extend into 2025, with experts attributing the growth primarily to a surge in robusta bean production—a variety traditionally used for instant coffee.
Typically, Brazilian coffee production has followed a biennial cycle, particularly with arabica beans, where a year of abundant yield is often succeeded by a lower-producing year. However, this pattern was disrupted by extreme weather events, including a severe drought and unexpected frosts around 2020 and 2021. Since these events, innovative post-frost farming techniques and the expanded use of irrigation—especially in robusta fields—have enabled Brazil to consistently produce larger crops each year.
Marcio Ferreira, chair of the exporting group Cecafe, confidently asserts that “The growth is a reality… No doubt next year’s crop will be larger as well,” forecasting a fourth consecutive year of increased production. This would echo a historical precedent set only once before, from 1989 to 1992.
The robusta bean’s resilience to the biennial production variation and its immunity to frosts in its primary growing regions have been crucial factors in stabilizing Brazil’s overall coffee output. The average yield of robusta fields has impressively climbed by 50 percent over the past decade to 44.2 bags per hectare, outpacing the arabica fields’ 24 percent increase to 26.7 bags per hectare.
Conab, Brazil’s food supply agency, projects the 2024 crop at 58 million bags, which is a 5 percent increase from the previous year. This growth comes as Vietnam, the main producer of robusta beans, faces its own weather-related challenges that have driven prices to their highest in over 16 years. Fernando Maximiliano, a coffee analyst at broker StoneX, speculates that “At some point, Brazil will likely produce more robusta beans than Vietnam.”
With the robusta harvest commencing in April and the arabica following in May or June, Brazil’s coffee industry remains a dynamic and influential force in the global market.
